A new report by ZE-Gen, launched on the International Day of Clean Energy, shows customer-centred solutions are critical to driving Nigeria’s clean energy transition. Currently more than 86 million people lack electricity access in Nigeria – the largest national electricity access deficit in the world.
‘Understanding Nigeria’s Fossil Fuel Generator Challenge’ marks the first public release of detailed customer-level data on fossil fuel generator use in Nigeria, where an estimated 41 million small businesses and 17 million households use petrol and diesel generators, contributing to an estimated $8 billion spent each year on fuel for highly polluting and expensive power.
The first-of-its-kind report by ZE-Gen combines 12 months of smart meter data collected by the Access to Energy Institute (A2EI) with in-depth market analysis by Open Capital across households, MSMEs, schools, healthcare facilities, and hotels in Nigeria.
It highlights that despite near-universal interest in switching from fossil fuel generators to modern solar generators, high upfront costs and inflexible financing remain the biggest barriers to change.
While historically, fossil fuel generators have dominated the market due to their availability, low upfront cost, and perceived reliability, today modern high-quality solar-powered generators remove the need for fuel entirely, offering a cleaner, quieter, and are more economical in the long-term in resource-constrained settings.
The report shows that a standard solar generator with a 2.5kW maximum output, combined with 1kW of solar panels and a 2kWh battery, could potentially meet up to 85% of the energy requirements of the customers surveyed. To unlock this potential, the report calls for data-driven product design, flexible financing models, and targeted awareness campaigns to ensure clean energy solutions meet real-world needs and budgets.
Key stakeholder recommendations include:
Product Developers & Distributors: Collaboratively design products using real smart meter data insights to create modular, scalable solar gensets tailored to Nigerian load profiles.
Investors & Lenders: Increase market availability of flexible customer financing models and use of carbon credits to lower upfront costs and expand inventory procurement services to reduce capital pressure
Donor & Development Partners: Build local capacity and customer awareness by training technicians, empowering entrepreneurs and running awareness campaigns to drive demand and trust.
Policy Makers: Expand and strengthen policy and regulatory support and incentives that enforce quality standards, streamline approvals, and consider mechanisms to expand local installation and maintenance labour force.
In addition, the report shows the benefit of leveraging data platforms for transparency, including using open-source tools like ZE-Gen’s PROSPECT platform to share insights and guide investment decisions and the importance of cross-industry collaboration and partnerships between solar generator suppliers and smart meter installers to share customer insights and drive product innovation.
By aligning technology with how customers actually use energy and what they can afford, Nigeria can accelerate the shift away from fossil fuel generators and deliver more affordable and reliable power to millions of households and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
Based on the data analysed, customer-driven solutions could:
Reduce energy costs for millions of households and MSMEs.
Cut emissions by displacing 500,000 litres of diesel annually, avoiding thousands of tonnes of CO₂e.
Unlock hundreds of millions in investment for solar generators.
Improve public health and prevent deaths from toxic fumes by replacing noisy, polluting fossil fuel generators with cleaner alternatives.
Lily Beadle, Programme Director, ZE-Gen said:
“Technology alone won’t solve Nigeria’s energy challenge – innovation must be combined with understanding the customer. Real-world data tells us what people need, how they use energy, and what they can afford.
“This report provides the market with a completely new understanding of customer use and insight is the foundation for designing solutions that work at scale.”
The includes market analysis by Open Capital and smart meter user data by A2EI.
Thomas Duveau, Chief Strategy Officer, Access to Energy Institute, said:
“Transparent access to verified data helps us to stop guessing. This report specifically analyses how fossil fuel generators can be replaced by solar solutions. It utilizes our data platform Prospect’s long-term data aggregation capabilities to provide solar developers, distributors, and investors with valuable insights to the Nigerian market. Further, it equips them with the tools to conduct their own analyses and enhance customer-centric solar generator design – accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to affordable, efficient solar alternatives. The methodology we developed jointly with Carbon Trust can be replicated in other countries.”
Duda Slawek, Associate Partner and Head of Clean Energy, Open Capital, said:
“Nigeria’s generator market presents one of the largest opportunities globally to scale clean alternatives, but only if solutions are designed around real customer behaviour and market constraints. By combining smart-meter data with detailed market and policy analysis, this study moves the conversation from aspiration to execution, offering a clearer roadmap for developers, investors, and policymakers to channel capital into solar generator solutions that are commercially viable, appropriately sized, and affordable at scale.”
Globally, around 1.5 billion people live with weak, unreliable, or no access to electricity. More than 80 million fossil fuel generators are currently in use, contributing to pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, noise and health risks, while imposing unpredictable fuel costs. In contrast, modern solar-powered generators offer cleaner, quieter, and more cost-effective alternatives.
Why Customer Insights Matter
More than 86 million Nigerians lack electricity access, making Nigeria the largest national electricity access deficit globally.2
41 million MSMEs and 17 million households rely on generators, spending $8 billion annually on fuel.
100% of surveyed customers expressed interest in clean energy alternatives, and 99% agreed that accessible financing is essential.
Smart meter data shows typical generator use is 2–4 hours per day, with peak demand in evenings for households and daytime for MSMEs, critical for sizing solar systems.
Smart meter data can identify the differences and similarities between different customer categories to create better customer profiles.
Source: Ze-Gen